January 22, 2022

Not so fast! Big 12 implosion unlikely to happen before 2025.

With the University of Texas and Oklahoma University’s public divorce with the Big 12 now official, rumors have abounded about other schools in the conference seeking conference realignment as well. One of the biggest rumors being proposed by college sports insiders is that Kansas University is headed for the Big 10. 

But according to Gopowercat.com editor Tim Fitzgerald this is unlikely at least before the Big 12 media rights deal expires in 2025. “Texas and Oklahoma can afford the buyout but the other eight cannot nor should they walk away from the current GoR [grant of rights] that is in place until the summer of 2025” Fitzgerald explained in his article. 

This means that if Kansas or another Big 12 school sought to leave before 2025 not only would they have to buyout their contracts from the Big 12, but they would miss out on the large buyouts that Texas and Oklahoma are likely to payout to avoid staying in the Big 12 until 2025 when the rights expire. 

Fitzgerald believes that Oklahoma and Texas’s buyouts will cost anywhere from 50 million to 100 million each. Any other Big 12 school that sought to leave would not only have to pay a similar buyout themselves but would miss out on collecting the proceeds from Oklahoma and Texas buyouts. Furthermore the Big 12 ranked 3rd in revenue gained per school among power 5 conferences. 

Here is the list of average revenue per school for each power 5 conference for the 2019-2020 season, Big 10 54.3 million, SEC 45.5 million, Big 12 37 million, Pac 12 33.6 million, ACC 30.9 million. With the Big 12 having the 3rd largest payout per school. Also while the Big 12 will make less revenue without Oklahoma and Texas they also only have to split it between 8 schools as opposed to 10. So it seems for now the Big 12 will be sticking around, at least until 2025, then almost anything for conference realignment is on the table. 

Link to Tim Fitzgerald’s original article: https://247sports.com/college/kansas-state/Article/Big-12-ESPN-Oklahoma-Texas-SEC-Big-12-conference-realignment-Kansas-State-Bob-Bowlsby-KU-grant-of-media-rights-GoR-imminent-168769488/  

Link for revenues per school for each power 5 conference: https://www.si.com/college/indiana/football/big-ten-daily-big-ten-leads-all-conferences-in-2020-revenue-indiana